Predicting the Pandemic Shock. A Geopolitical-Financial Composite Index for Early Warning and Mitigation of Critical Medical Supply Stock-Outs

Name: Predicting the Pandemic Shock. A Geopolitical-Financial Composite Index for Early Warning and Mitigation of Critical Medical Supply Stock-Outs
Brand: GRIN Verlag
Availability: OutOfStock
Rating: 5 (1 reviews)

By Olamide Omotosho

0 - Default Title

Description

Seminar paper from the year 2024 in the subject Health - Health Sciences, grade: 3.58 (very good), University of Washington, course: Global Health, language: English, abstract: This research tackles a key weakness in global medical supply chains revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic. It creates a new Geopolitical-Financial Composite Index (GFCI) to act as an early-warning system. The study moves past old, reactive models by combining different risk indicators like political instability, financial swings, trade policy changes, and shipping performance into a single score. We built this index using principal component analysis and tested its accuracy against real data from the 2020-2023 crisis period. The results show the GFCI reliably signals coming shortages of medical supplies about three months in advance. This was confirmed by strong statistical correlations and ROC analysis. The final output is a practical Early-Warning and Mitigation Framework that turns GFCI alerts into specific actions, like finding new suppliers or building up reserves. This work provides policymakers and health organizations with a proactive, data-driven tool to build stronger supply chains and better prepare for future pandemics.

Product details

Binding:: Paperback
Edition:: 1
Number of Pages:: 48
Release Date:: 2025-12-22
Publication Date:: 2025-12-22
Publisher:: GRIN Verlag
Languages:: Original: English
ISBN10:: 3389173986
ISBN13:: 9783389173985
Weight:: 84 g
Height:: 14.8 cm
Width:: 21 cm
Thickness:: 0.4 cm

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