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Future Babble

By Dan Gardner

Future Babble book

Future Babble

By Dan Gardner

0 - Used - very good
Description
In 2008 as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1908 it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future everythng from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
In this fast-paced example-packed sometimes darkly hilarious book Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology political science and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain but the end is not always near.
Product details
Binding:
Paperback
Number of Pages:
320
Release Date:
2012-04-12
Publication Date:
2012-04-12
Publisher:
Virgin Books
Languages:
Original: English
ISBN10:
0753522373
ISBN13:
9780753522370
GPSR Manufacturer Reference:
[email protected]
Weight:
374 g
Height:
126 cm
Width:
198 cm
Thickness:
19 cm
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